Série D Brazil Etapas Finales 1/16
Global 3-3
Ferroviária vs Hercílio Luz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.7%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
10.9%
1-0
13.8%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.8%
29.9%
Draw
0-0
12.3%
1-1
13.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
29.9%
31.4%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+27%
-9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviária
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
OPE
0 - 1
FER
20%
27%
53%
|
58 | 44 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
FER
1 - 2
GRE
42%
29%
29%
|
58 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
INT
1 - 0
FER
34%
29%
37%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | -1 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
FER
4 - 2
XVD
36%
30%
35%
|
58 | 60 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
CRA
0 - 1
FER
37%
29%
34%
|
57 | 54 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
HER
2 - 0
AIM
65%
22%
13%
|
61 | 47 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2023 |
NOV
5 - 5
HER
23%
31%
46%
|
61 | 48 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
HER
3 - 0
IND
53%
27%
20%
|
60 | 50 | 10 | +1 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
CAM
1 - 1
HER
40%
30%
30%
|
60 | 55 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
HER
2 - 0
CAC
53%
27%
20%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | +1 |