Ferroviária vs Caldense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.6%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.4%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.5%
1-0
14.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.2%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
22.7%
14.8%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.7%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviária
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug. 2021 |
RVV
0 - 0
FER
35%
30%
35%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
FER
2 - 0
RIO
67%
21%
12%
|
61 | 46 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2021 |
AGU
0 - 1
FER
18%
26%
56%
|
61 | 39 | 22 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2021 |
PAT
0 - 2
FER
17%
27%
56%
|
61 | 43 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2021 |
FER
2 - 0
BOA
58%
25%
17%
|
60 | 53 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Caldense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
CAL
0 - 1
BOA
33%
30%
37%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
UBE
2 - 3
CAL
52%
26%
23%
|
49 | 51 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Aug. 2021 |
CAL
0 - 0
PAT
56%
25%
19%
|
49 | 42 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2021 |
AGU
0 - 6
CAL
35%
26%
39%
|
48 | 42 | 6 | +1 |
| 24 Jul. 2021 |
CAL
0 - 0
RVV
26%
28%
46%
|
48 | 54 | 6 | 0 |