Fernwald vs SV Steinbach 1920 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.7%
Win probability
2.75
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
5.6%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.8%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.5%
14.7%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.7%
10.6%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.2%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
1º
5º
4º
27
6º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
46 | 73 |
1º
|
46.5% | |
|
2º
|
41 | 71 |
2º
|
30% | |
|
4º
|
38 | 68 |
3º
|
27.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
41 | 65 |
4º
|
20% | |
|
5º
|
36 | 59 |
5º
|
19.5% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 55 |
6º
|
10% | |
|
7º
|
33 | 52 |
7º
|
11% | |
|
12º
|
28 | 52 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
9º
|
31 | 52 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
10º
|
30 | 51 |
10º
|
8.5% | |
|
14º
|
26 | 50 |
11º
|
7.5% | |
|
8º
|
32 | 50 |
12º
|
7% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 47 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
27 | 45 |
14º
|
13% | |
|
16º
|
25 | 43 |
15º
|
12% | |
|
15º
|
26 | 40 |
16º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
21 | 36 |
17º
|
37% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 24 |
18º
|
52% | |
|
19º
|
12 | 23 |
19º
|
62.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
8% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
19.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
72.5% | 46% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 14% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 40% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fernwald
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
SVA
0 - 3
FER
37%
22%
41%
|
37 | 34 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
FER
1 - 2
HSC
56%
19%
25%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2024 |
WAL
3 - 2
FER
30%
22%
49%
|
39 | 30 | 9 | -2 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
HOR
0 - 2
FER
17%
18%
65%
|
39 | 20 | 19 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
FER
3 - 1
EIN
71%
16%
13%
|
38 | 30 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
SV Steinbach 1920
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
STE
0 - 5
RWW
26%
22%
52%
|
29 | 38 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2024 |
HUN
1 - 0
STE
46%
22%
32%
|
30 | 27 | 3 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
STE
1 - 1
WAL
42%
22%
37%
|
30 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
WOL
1 - 3
STE
30%
22%
48%
|
29 | 23 | 6 | +1 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
STE
0 - 2
EDD
33%
23%
45%
|
31 | 38 | 7 | -2 |