Qualif. Champions Segunda Ronda Final
Global 6-4
Fenerbahçe vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.8%
24.2%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.9%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fenerbahçe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 4
FEN
39%
26%
35%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
5 - 1
HUL
75%
15%
10%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
STR
0 - 4
FEN
37%
25%
38%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
0 - 1
HKS
60%
21%
20%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
AWM
1 - 1
FEN
15%
22%
63%
|
86 | 69 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 2
LUG
38%
25%
37%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 4
FEN
39%
26%
35%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 1
GCZ
57%
23%
20%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | +1 |
| 17 Jul. 2024 |
INT
3 - 2
LUG
86%
10%
4%
|
84 | 99 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 1
PAR
43%
26%
32%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |