Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.3%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.5%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
27%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.5%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
42
2º
8º
4º
37
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
51 | 75 |
1º
|
48.5% | |
|
1º
|
51 | 74 |
2º
|
42.5% | |
|
4º
|
39 | 63 |
3º
|
28% | |
|
|
3º
|
42 | 63 |
4º
|
28% | |
|
|
5º
|
37 | 61 |
5º
|
30% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 59 |
6º
|
31% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 50 |
7º
|
51% | |
|
11º
|
24 | 42 |
8º
|
18% | |
|
13º
|
24 | 41 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
12º
|
24 | 41 |
10º
|
15.5% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 40 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 40 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
24 | 39 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
26 | 37 |
14º
|
12% | |
|
15º
|
24 | 36 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
16º
|
20 | 35 |
16º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
17 | 29 |
17º
|
55% | |
|
18º
|
13 | 22 |
18º
|
79% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
2% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
5.5% | 3.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
32% | 14.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
28% | 21% |
|
Next round
|
32.5% | 61% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Utrecht
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
RKC
1 - 2
UTR
19%
21%
60%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
FEY
1 - 2
UTR
44%
24%
32%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
UTR
2 - 5
FOR
71%
18%
11%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | -1 |
| 18 Dec. 2024 |
AFC
0 - 8
UTR
17%
21%
62%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
UTR
3 - 3
GAE
61%
21%
18%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
AZA
2 - 0
AJA
43%
23%
34%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
PSV
2 - 2
AZA
52%
23%
25%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
AZA
1 - 0
TWE
47%
24%
30%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | -1 |
| 18 Dec. 2024 |
AZA
3 - 1
GRO
69%
18%
13%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 2
AZA
19%
24%
57%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |