Europa League Quarter-finals
Global 2-1
Twente vs Velež Mostar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
89.1%
Win probability
3.54
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
0.9%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.2%
7-0
2.1%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.8%
6-0
4.2%
7-1
1.3%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.8%
5-0
7.1%
6-1
2.7%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
10.3%
4-0
10.1%
5-1
4.5%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
15.5%
3-0
11.4%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.4%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.3%
7.5%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
3.5%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
7.5%
3.3%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
1.1%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
2.5%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0.1%
-2
0.6%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Twente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar. 1975 |
TWE
2 - 0
EXC
81%
13%
6%
|
88 | 62 | 26 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1975 |
SPA
1 - 1
TWE
37%
28%
36%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 1975 |
VEL
1 - 0
TWE
17%
24%
59%
|
87 | 70 | 17 | +1 |
| 01 Mar. 1975 |
TWE
2 - 2
MVV
78%
15%
7%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | -1 |
| 23 Feb. 1975 |
ADO
1 - 3
TWE
23%
29%
48%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Velež Mostar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar. 1975 |
VEL
1 - 0
TWE
17%
24%
59%
|
70 | 87 | 17 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 1974 |
VEL
4 - 1
DER
13%
24%
63%
|
68 | 88 | 20 | +2 |
| 27 Nov. 1974 |
DER
3 - 1
VEL
94%
5%
2%
|
68 | 88 | 20 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 1974 |
VEL
1 - 0
RAP
40%
22%
38%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 1974 |
RAP
1 - 1
VEL
77%
13%
10%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | 0 |