Nelson vs Ferrymead Bays analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.6%
Win probability
2.7
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.5%
5-0
4.4%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.8%
4-0
8.2%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.2%
3-0
12.1%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.9%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.3%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.5%
12.5%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
6%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
12.5%
5.9%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.5%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nelson
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
NSF
1 - 2
FCN
11%
16%
73%
|
60 | 19 | 41 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
TAH
2 - 3
FCN
9%
15%
76%
|
60 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2024 |
FCN
9 - 0
MAF
81%
13%
6%
|
60 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2023 |
MAF
2 - 1
FCN
5%
12%
83%
|
60 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2023 |
FCN
5 - 2
GBA
84%
12%
5%
|
60 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
Matches
Ferrymead Bays
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jun. 2024 |
NOM
2 - 1
FER
68%
17%
16%
|
18 | 23 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2024 |
FER
2 - 1
UOC
68%
18%
15%
|
18 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
FER
2 - 3
CAS
7%
11%
83%
|
18 | 39 | 21 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
NSF
4 - 2
FER
55%
20%
25%
|
19 | 19 | 0 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
SUF
0 - 3
FER
21%
19%
60%
|
19 | 11 | 8 | 0 |