Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.8%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2%
2-0
3.6%
3-1
2.2%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.3%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.9%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.8%
52.3%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.7%
0-2
9%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
16%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.2%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
9
2º
10º
10º
13
2º
5º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 72 |
1º
|
41% | |
|
|
2º
|
13 | 67 |
2º
|
23.5% | |
|
15º
|
3 | 64 |
3º
|
12% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 63 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 60 |
5º
|
14% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 59 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 52 |
7º
|
17% | |
|
5º
|
8 | 47 |
8º
|
11% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 46 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
9 | 46 |
10º
|
14% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 42 |
11º
|
10% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 41 |
12º
|
14% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 38 |
13º
|
8.5% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 34 |
14º
|
16.5% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 33 |
15º
|
12% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 31 |
16º
|
19.5% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
17º
|
24.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 27 |
18º
|
38.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0.5% | 18% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 23.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0.5% | 19% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
2.5% | 16% |
|
Next round
|
30% | 22.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
63% | 1% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
3% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Groningen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
RKC
1 - 2
GRO
30%
25%
45%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
GRO
4 - 1
NAC
52%
24%
24%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | +1 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
GRO
2 - 0
HER
49%
23%
28%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
GRO
4 - 1
LAM
70%
19%
11%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
GRO
3 - 2
FCE
50%
24%
27%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
AZA
1 - 0
NEC
60%
21%
19%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
ALM
0 - 1
AZA
18%
23%
60%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
STO
0 - 1
AZA
20%
23%
58%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
AZA
1 - 1
LHA
74%
17%
10%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
AZA
2 - 2
ATL
26%
24%
50%
|
88 | 95 | 7 | 0 |