Champions League 1/16
Global 5-5
Erzgebirge Aue vs Gwardia Warszawa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.3%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
14.3%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
8%
3-2
5.3%
4-3
1.7%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.5%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
7.2%
3-3
3.1%
4-4
0.8%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
20.3%
31.5%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
1.4%
4-5
0.3%
5-6
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
9.2%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
2-8
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Erzgebirge Aue
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 1957 |
ERZ
3 - 1
GWA
46%
21%
34%
|
56 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1957 |
GWA
3 - 1
ERZ
71%
15%
14%
|
57 | 71 | 14 | -1 |
Matches
Gwardia Warszawa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 1957 |
ERZ
3 - 1
GWA
46%
21%
34%
|
72 | 56 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1957 |
GWA
3 - 1
ERZ
71%
15%
14%
|
71 | 57 | 14 | +1 |
| 12 Oct. 1955 |
GWA
1 - 4
DJU
51%
21%
28%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | -1 |
| 20 Sep. 1955 |
DJU
0 - 0
GWA
75%
14%
11%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |