Alverca II vs Mortágua analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.9%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
13%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.4%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
7.2%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.4%
34.9%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.2%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
10.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
4.8%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+272%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
39
1º
10º
4º
37
5º
14º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
55 | 55 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
51 | 51 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
50 | 50 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
39 | 39 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 38 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
37 | 37 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
37 | 37 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
32 | 32 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
25 | 25 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
21 | 21 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
17 | 17 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alverca II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
USA
3 - 1
FCA
68%
19%
13%
|
36 | 48 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2024 |
LUS
1 - 0
FCA
52%
25%
24%
|
37 | 42 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
FCA
0 - 1
MAR
44%
26%
30%
|
38 | 43 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
PEN
0 - 2
FCA
27%
23%
51%
|
37 | 28 | 9 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 0
BEN
34%
26%
41%
|
35 | 44 | 9 | +2 |
Matches
Mortágua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
MOR
2 - 1
SER
37%
27%
36%
|
35 | 39 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
MOR
0 - 4
USA
20%
24%
55%
|
37 | 48 | 11 | -2 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
MAR
2 - 0
MOR
50%
24%
26%
|
38 | 42 | 4 | -1 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
MOR
2 - 0
PEN
65%
20%
15%
|
37 | 29 | 8 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
BEN
2 - 0
MOR
50%
24%
26%
|
38 | 43 | 5 | -1 |