Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.9%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.7%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.8%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
33.9%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.4%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.8%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
57
2º
7º
4º
49
4º
9º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
66 | 66 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
57 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
49 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 24 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2023 |
SCA
0 - 3
FCA
51%
21%
29%
|
63 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2023 |
FCA
2 - 0
LUZ
64%
19%
17%
|
62 | 56 | 6 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 2023 |
TUR
1 - 0
FCA
18%
18%
64%
|
63 | 55 | 8 | -1 |
| 27 Nov. 2022 |
LAU
2 - 2
FCA
41%
24%
35%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 0
SCH
46%
24%
30%
|
62 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2023 |
LAU
4 - 1
THU
44%
22%
33%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
YOB
2 - 0
THU
81%
13%
6%
|
63 | 85 | 22 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
THU
0 - 1
BEL
55%
22%
23%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2022 |
THU
2 - 1
SIO
27%
23%
50%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2022 |
THU
1 - 1
FCV
37%
24%
39%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |