Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.4%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.5%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.9%
27.4%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.4%
33.2%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.7%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2007 |
GCZ
1 - 1
FCA
63%
21%
15%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2007 |
KRI
1 - 0
FCA
35%
24%
40%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | -1 |
| 07 Oct. 2007 |
FCA
0 - 3
BAS
17%
21%
62%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2007 |
FCA
2 - 0
SIO
35%
28%
37%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | +2 |
| 26 Sep. 2007 |
YOB
4 - 1
FCA
71%
18%
11%
|
67 | 81 | 14 | -1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2007 |
THU
1 - 1
ZUR
23%
24%
53%
|
73 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2007 |
CHA
0 - 1
THU
14%
20%
67%
|
72 | 44 | 28 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 2007 |
STG
0 - 4
THU
53%
25%
22%
|
71 | 73 | 2 | +1 |
| 30 Sep. 2007 |
THU
1 - 1
NEX
47%
26%
27%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2007 |
SIO
2 - 1
THU
53%
25%
23%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |