Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.4%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.9%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.9%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.5%
26%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
33.5%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
8.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul. 2004 |
BAS
6 - 0
FCA
74%
16%
10%
|
71 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2004 |
ZUR
4 - 1
FCA
53%
24%
23%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2004 |
FCA
1 - 2
THU
50%
25%
26%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | -1 |
| 12 May. 2004 |
FCA
4 - 0
WIL
52%
24%
25%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 May. 2004 |
SER
1 - 1
FCA
61%
21%
18%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2004 |
HSV
3 - 1
THU
66%
20%
14%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2004 |
THU
3 - 0
SER
49%
23%
28%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 17 Jul. 2004 |
THU
2 - 2
HSV
37%
24%
39%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2004 |
THU
4 - 1
WOL
39%
25%
36%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | +1 |
| 03 Jul. 2004 |
WOL
2 - 3
THU
68%
19%
13%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | +1 |