Aarau vs Etoile Carouge analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.7%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.8%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
29.8%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
6º
10º
8º
16
1º
5º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
3º
|
15 | 35 |
1º
|
58.5% | |
|
|
1º
|
16 | 30 |
2º
|
22% | |
|
2º
|
16 | 30 |
3º
|
18.5% | |
|
5º
|
11 | 25 |
4º
|
13.5% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 25 |
5º
|
10% | |
|
4º
|
14 | 25 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 23 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
8 | 22 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 21 |
9º
|
21% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 18 |
10º
|
51.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 19.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
3% | 22% |
|
Mid-table
|
87% | 58.5% |
|
Relegation
|
9.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SUH
0 - 4
FCA
2%
6%
91%
|
64 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
STA
1 - 1
FCA
53%
23%
24%
|
64 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 3
NEX
45%
25%
31%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | -1 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
WIL
2 - 2
FCA
33%
25%
42%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 3
THU
26%
24%
49%
|
65 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Etoile Carouge
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
LAN
3 - 3
ETO
12%
17%
71%
|
65 | 46 | 19 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
ETO
0 - 2
THU
24%
24%
52%
|
65 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
BEL
1 - 1
ETO
31%
27%
43%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
ETO
3 - 1
NEX
41%
25%
34%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | +1 |
| 19 Jul. 2024 |
SCH
2 - 3
ETO
40%
26%
34%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | +1 |