Aarau vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
26.1%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.5%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.2%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.6%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
50.3%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.8%
0-2
8%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.3%
0-3
4.7%
1-4
2.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.1%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
3.1%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2004 |
STG
2 - 0
FCA
54%
23%
23%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2004 |
FCA
2 - 0
NEX
50%
25%
25%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 2004 |
NEX
4 - 1
FCA
44%
25%
31%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Mar. 2004 |
FCA
3 - 0
STG
39%
25%
36%
|
70 | 75 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 2004 |
BAS
3 - 1
FCA
75%
15%
10%
|
71 | 84 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2004 |
BAS
2 - 0
WIL
75%
16%
10%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2004 |
BAS
1 - 0
SER
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2004 |
SER
1 - 4
BAS
37%
25%
38%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2004 |
WIL
1 - 1
BAS
30%
24%
46%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2004 |
BAS
3 - 1
FCA
75%
15%
10%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |