Fatima vs Penalva Castelo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.2%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.1%
4-0
6.8%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
9%
3-0
11.4%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.2%
2-0
14.3%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.6%
1-0
12%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
15.3%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
15.3%
7.5%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.8%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fatima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
FAT
1 - 0
UDL
29%
28%
44%
|
53 | 62 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
RIB
3 - 1
FAT
21%
24%
55%
|
53 | 35 | 18 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2012 |
FAT
1 - 0
CAS
56%
23%
21%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
LOU
0 - 3
FAT
23%
25%
53%
|
53 | 39 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2012 |
FAT
4 - 1
POM
74%
17%
10%
|
54 | 34 | 20 | -1 |
Matches
Penalva Castelo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
PEN
0 - 0
EST
26%
24%
51%
|
27 | 39 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
SAL
3 - 1
PEN
71%
17%
12%
|
27 | 39 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2012 |
PEN
3 - 2
GDP
78%
14%
8%
|
27 | 14 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
AGU
0 - 1
PEN
33%
24%
43%
|
27 | 20 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2012 |
PEN
1 - 0
PEN
45%
24%
31%
|
26 | 27 | 1 | +1 |