Farense vs Arouca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.9%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.7%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.7%
26.2%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.2%
39%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.1%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.4%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
0
12º
18º
16º
3
10º
16º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 75 |
1º
|
59% | |
|
5º
|
10 | 69 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 69 |
3º
|
23.5% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 68 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
3º
|
12 | 61 |
5º
|
29.5% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 52 |
6º
|
24.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 50 |
7º
|
20% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 44 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 40 |
11º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 39 |
13º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 37 |
14º
|
15.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 35 |
15º
|
5.5% | |
|
|
18º
|
0 | 34 |
16º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 28 |
17º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
18º
|
39.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 1.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
63% | 89.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
10.5% | 4% |
|
Relegation
|
26.5% | 5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Farense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
FCP
2 - 1
FAR
74%
17%
9%
|
73 | 88 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 0
FAR
46%
25%
29%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
FAR
0 - 5
SCP
18%
21%
61%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | -1 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
RIO
1 - 0
FAR
50%
25%
26%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
FAR
1 - 2
MOR
35%
27%
38%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 3
SCP
19%
22%
59%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
RIO
1 - 0
ARO
40%
26%
34%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
1 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
24%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
MOR
3 - 1
ARO
50%
24%
26%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 1
VIT
36%
26%
38%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |