Sergipano Playoffs Final
Global 2-2
Falcon FC vs Itabaiana analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.3%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
51.3%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.2%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.7%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.9%
0-4
2.1%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.1%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Falcon FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2023 |
FFC
0 - 2
CON
14%
21%
65%
|
36 | 62 | 26 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
SER
4 - 1
FFC
72%
17%
11%
|
37 | 52 | 15 | -1 |
| 01 Mar. 2023 |
FFC
4 - 1
EST
60%
20%
20%
|
36 | 25 | 11 | +1 |
| 22 Feb. 2023 |
FFC
1 - 3
VOL
8%
15%
77%
|
37 | 62 | 25 | -1 |
| 16 Feb. 2023 |
FFC
0 - 0
AME
52%
22%
26%
|
37 | 30 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Itabaiana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2023 |
ATG
1 - 0
ITA
15%
21%
64%
|
48 | 31 | 17 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
ITA
1 - 2
AFP
73%
18%
9%
|
48 | 26 | 22 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
SER
2 - 1
ITA
50%
25%
25%
|
49 | 51 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 Feb. 2023 |
ITA
1 - 0
LAG
38%
27%
35%
|
48 | 50 | 2 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
ITA
1 - 0
FFC
61%
22%
18%
|
48 | 37 | 11 | 0 |