Excelsior vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.1%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.4%
14.4%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2000 |
VOL
1 - 3
EXC
42%
24%
34%
|
62 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2000 |
EXC
1 - 0
GRO
37%
26%
38%
|
61 | 73 | 12 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 2000 |
NEC
1 - 0
EXC
52%
23%
25%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Jan. 2000 |
EXC
1 - 0
GAE
54%
22%
24%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | +1 |
| 18 Dec. 1999 |
FCE
0 - 0
EXC
52%
24%
25%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2000 |
HER
3 - 1
BVV
52%
24%
24%
|
55 | 54 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2000 |
ZWO
1 - 0
HER
72%
18%
10%
|
55 | 72 | 17 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2000 |
HER
0 - 0
EIN
48%
24%
28%
|
55 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 1999 |
HER
0 - 1
RBC
41%
25%
34%
|
56 | 62 | 6 | -1 |
| 04 Dec. 1999 |
HER
2 - 3
HEL
51%
24%
25%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | 0 |