Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.6%
Win probability
2.71
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.5%
5-0
4.4%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.8%
4-0
8.2%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.3%
3-0
12.1%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.9%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.3%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.4%
12.5%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
12.5%
5.9%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.5%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2004 |
HEL
1 - 0
EXC
40%
25%
35%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2004 |
EXC
3 - 0
GAE
62%
20%
18%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2004 |
RJC
3 - 0
EXC
58%
22%
20%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2004 |
APE
3 - 2
EXC
28%
25%
47%
|
70 | 60 | 10 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2004 |
EXC
3 - 1
TEL
72%
17%
11%
|
70 | 57 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Fortuna Sittard
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2004 |
FOR
2 - 3
VOL
25%
24%
51%
|
49 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2004 |
HFC
5 - 1
FOR
52%
25%
23%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | -1 |
| 21 Sep. 2004 |
FOR
1 - 3
HER
21%
22%
57%
|
51 | 72 | 21 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2004 |
HEL
0 - 1
FOR
76%
16%
8%
|
50 | 67 | 17 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 2004 |
FOR
3 - 0
GAE
20%
22%
58%
|
48 | 63 | 15 | +2 |