Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
12.8%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.8%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.8%
1-0
4.9%
2-1
3.5%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
9.3%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
20.5%
66.8%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
0-1
13.4%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.4%
0-2
13.2%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20.6%
0-3
8.6%
1-4
3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
12.1%
0-4
4.2%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
5.6%
0-5
1.7%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
EXC
1 - 0
GRO
35%
25%
40%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2022 |
WIL
3 - 1
EXC
37%
24%
39%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2022 |
EXC
1 - 1
SCH
32%
23%
45%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2022 |
BRU
0 - 2
EXC
74%
16%
10%
|
65 | 87 | 22 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2022 |
KVK
1 - 0
EXC
34%
23%
43%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jan. 2023 |
AZA
1 - 1
VIT
67%
19%
14%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2022 |
ATL
0 - 1
AZA
56%
21%
23%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2022 |
VCF
1 - 3
AZA
43%
24%
33%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
PSV
0 - 1
AZA
56%
22%
23%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
RKC
3 - 1
AZA
14%
20%
66%
|
86 | 69 | 17 | 0 |