Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.9%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.6%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
26%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.9%
35.2%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
8%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.7%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1987 |
AJA
3 - 0
EXC
92%
6%
2%
|
60 | 88 | 28 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1987 |
EXC
3 - 2
FOR
47%
28%
25%
|
59 | 66 | 7 | +1 |
| 14 Dec. 1986 |
EXC
1 - 1
GAE
46%
28%
26%
|
59 | 66 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1986 |
SPA
2 - 2
EXC
82%
12%
6%
|
59 | 75 | 16 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1986 |
PSV
7 - 0
EXC
84%
11%
5%
|
59 | 88 | 29 | 0 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 1987 |
HFC
1 - 1
AZA
47%
24%
29%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1987 |
AZA
2 - 1
RJC
45%
26%
29%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 1986 |
GRO
0 - 0
AZA
66%
19%
15%
|
70 | 76 | 6 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 1986 |
AZA
1 - 1
TWE
53%
25%
22%
|
70 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 1986 |
AZA
1 - 3
ZWO
60%
22%
19%
|
71 | 60 | 11 | -1 |