Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.6%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.2%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.7%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
13.5%
25%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
25%
55.3%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
14%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
25.7%
0-2
11.2%
1-3
5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.1%
0-3
6%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
8.2%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.1%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 1979 |
HFC
1 - 5
EXC
61%
24%
15%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1979 |
EXC
2 - 0
VIT
45%
26%
29%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | +2 |
| 22 Aug. 1979 |
EXC
2 - 1
GAE
41%
27%
33%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 1979 |
NAC
1 - 1
EXC
71%
19%
11%
|
62 | 73 | 11 | +1 |
| 07 Jun. 1976 |
EIN
2 - 1
EXC
63%
22%
15%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 1979 |
AZA
2 - 1
SPA
72%
17%
11%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1979 |
ADO
1 - 0
AZA
30%
26%
44%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1979 |
MVV
1 - 2
AZA
23%
26%
51%
|
86 | 70 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 1979 |
AZA
2 - 1
PSV
46%
25%
29%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 1979 |
AZA
3 - 0
HFC
80%
13%
7%
|
85 | 68 | 17 | +1 |