Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.3%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.3%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
10%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
21.9%
30.1%
Draw
0-0
12.5%
1-1
13.5%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
30.1%
33.6%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
12.7%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 1976 |
GRA
1 - 0
EXC
71%
19%
11%
|
62 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1976 |
EXC
0 - 2
PSV
11%
20%
69%
|
62 | 88 | 26 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1976 |
RJC
0 - 1
EXC
70%
19%
11%
|
61 | 72 | 11 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 1976 |
SPA
0 - 1
EXC
78%
15%
7%
|
60 | 81 | 21 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 1976 |
EXC
0 - 2
AJA
12%
23%
66%
|
60 | 88 | 28 | 0 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 1976 |
AZA
2 - 0
SPA
41%
28%
31%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1976 |
AJA
2 - 0
AZA
83%
11%
6%
|
75 | 88 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1976 |
AZA
1 - 1
TEL
50%
26%
25%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1976 |
UTR
1 - 0
AZA
49%
26%
25%
|
75 | 65 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1976 |
MVV
3 - 0
AZA
47%
26%
27%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | -1 |