Excelsior .31 vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.6%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.9%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.3%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
3.9%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.2%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18.1%
68.4%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.9%
0-2
10.5%
1-3
7.5%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.3%
0-3
8.1%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.4%
0-4
4.7%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
7.1%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.1%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior .31
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2013 |
CAP
1 - 1
EXC
51%
24%
25%
|
51 | 54 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2013 |
EXC
4 - 2
KAT
40%
24%
36%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 05 Oct. 2013 |
SPA
4 - 2
EXC
55%
22%
24%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Sep. 2013 |
EXC
1 - 1
SCH
57%
23%
21%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2013 |
EXC
2 - 1
WIL
24%
23%
52%
|
50 | 62 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2013 |
FEY
1 - 2
HER
64%
20%
16%
|
70 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2013 |
HER
1 - 1
NEC
55%
23%
22%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2013 |
NAC
2 - 1
HER
41%
25%
34%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2013 |
RKC
1 - 4
HER
41%
25%
34%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 Sep. 2013 |
RKC
0 - 1
HER
44%
23%
33%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |