Everton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.1%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.4%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.9%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
17.4%
17.5%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1938 |
EVE
5 - 2
OPA
68%
17%
15%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1938 |
BIR
0 - 3
EVE
50%
22%
27%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1938 |
SUN
2 - 0
EVE
61%
19%
21%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1938 |
EVE
3 - 0
CHA
65%
18%
17%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1938 |
EVE
3 - 3
SUN
61%
18%
21%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1938 |
DER
1 - 2
GRI
65%
18%
17%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1938 |
CHL
3 - 0
DER
48%
23%
29%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1938 |
HUR
2 - 0
DER
45%
23%
32%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Apr. 1938 |
DER
0 - 4
HUR
69%
17%
15%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1938 |
DER
4 - 1
LIV
66%
17%
17%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |