Everton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.1%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.6%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.4%
2-0
8%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.4%
17.4%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec. 1933 |
WBA
3 - 3
EVE
58%
21%
21%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1933 |
EVE
3 - 7
NEW
68%
17%
15%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1933 |
NEW
1 - 2
EVE
57%
21%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1933 |
ASV
2 - 1
EVE
70%
16%
14%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 1933 |
EVE
1 - 0
SUN
66%
18%
17%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec. 1933 |
DER
2 - 0
MID
67%
18%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1933 |
MAC
2 - 0
DER
56%
21%
23%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Dec. 1933 |
DER
4 - 1
MAC
66%
18%
16%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | +1 |
| 23 Dec. 1933 |
SUN
0 - 0
DER
57%
21%
22%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 1933 |
DER
5 - 1
SHE
64%
18%
18%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |