Everton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.6%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.2%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.2%
20.1%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.3%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1928 |
LEI
1 - 0
EVE
64%
18%
18%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1928 |
MUD
1 - 0
EVE
43%
24%
34%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 1928 |
EVE
0 - 0
OPA
67%
18%
15%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 1928 |
WHU
0 - 0
EVE
55%
21%
25%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1928 |
LIV
3 - 3
EVE
60%
20%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1928 |
DER
0 - 0
HUR
46%
22%
32%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 1928 |
TOT
1 - 2
DER
63%
19%
18%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1928 |
DER
2 - 1
SHE
56%
20%
24%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1928 |
BCF
3 - 0
DER
59%
20%
21%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1928 |
DER
2 - 3
LIV
62%
20%
18%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | -1 |