Everton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.5%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.8%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.6%
12.9%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 1920 |
DER
2 - 4
EVE
54%
24%
23%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1920 |
NEW
2 - 0
EVE
51%
25%
24%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1920 |
EVE
1 - 1
BRA
66%
18%
15%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1920 |
EVE
3 - 1
NEW
69%
19%
12%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 1920 |
BRA
3 - 3
EVE
57%
23%
21%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 1920 |
DER
2 - 4
EVE
54%
24%
23%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1920 |
TOT
2 - 0
DER
59%
22%
19%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | -1 |
| 04 Sep. 1920 |
CHL
1 - 1
DER
58%
23%
19%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1920 |
DER
2 - 2
TOT
52%
23%
25%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 1920 |
DER
0 - 0
CHL
57%
23%
21%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |