Everton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.5%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.1%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.5%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
18%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18%
13.5%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.2%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 1920 |
EVE
3 - 0
SHE
57%
22%
21%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1920 |
SHE
1 - 1
EVE
58%
22%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1920 |
EVE
0 - 0
MUD
63%
20%
18%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1920 |
MUD
1 - 0
EVE
51%
25%
24%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1920 |
OLD
4 - 1
EVE
53%
24%
23%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 1920 |
DER
0 - 0
BRA
52%
23%
25%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1920 |
BRA
1 - 1
DER
63%
20%
16%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1920 |
DER
2 - 0
PNE
56%
23%
21%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1920 |
PNE
1 - 1
DER
61%
21%
18%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1920 |
BUR
2 - 0
DER
71%
17%
13%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |