Everton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.3%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.2%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.1%
18.7%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.3%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 1913 |
SHE
4 - 1
EVE
61%
22%
17%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1913 |
EVE
2 - 0
MID
60%
22%
18%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1913 |
ASV
3 - 1
EVE
77%
14%
9%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1913 |
EVE
1 - 2
LIV
59%
22%
20%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1913 |
NEW
0 - 1
EVE
60%
22%
18%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 1913 |
DER
1 - 1
SUN
39%
24%
37%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1913 |
BBU
3 - 1
DER
73%
16%
11%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1913 |
DER
3 - 1
BRA
63%
21%
17%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1913 |
MAC
1 - 2
DER
62%
21%
17%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 1913 |
TOT
1 - 1
DER
54%
24%
22%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |