Ethiopia vs Zambia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
22.7%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.6%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.7%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.9%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
51.8%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
12.9%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.8%
0-2
10%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.9%
0-3
5.2%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.4%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 2019 |
ETH
2 - 1
CIV
15%
23%
63%
|
58 | 85 | 27 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2019 |
MAD
1 - 0
ETH
42%
25%
33%
|
59 | 62 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2019 |
RWA
1 - 1
ETH
48%
24%
28%
|
59 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2019 |
ETH
0 - 1
RWA
37%
26%
37%
|
59 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2019 |
LSO
1 - 1
ETH
31%
25%
44%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Zambia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 2020 |
RSA
1 - 2
ZAM
53%
27%
21%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2020 |
KEN
2 - 1
ZAM
20%
26%
54%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2020 |
ZAM
1 - 0
MWI
72%
19%
9%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2020 |
MWI
0 - 1
ZAM
20%
25%
55%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2019 |
ZAM
1 - 2
ZIM
52%
25%
23%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |