WC Qual. Africa 1ra Ronda Final
Global 5-0
Ethiopia vs Somalia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.7%
Win probability
2.36
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
11.3%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
16%
2-0
14.3%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
15.6%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
15.6%
7.8%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.9%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-17%
-11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2011 |
SOM
0 - 0
ETH
18%
21%
61%
|
64 | 36 | 28 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
4 - 2
MAD
69%
19%
13%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | +1 |
| 04 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
0 - 0
MWI
42%
26%
33%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
GUI
1 - 0
ETH
65%
21%
14%
|
63 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
ETH
2 - 2
NGA
22%
29%
49%
|
63 | 88 | 25 | 0 |
Matches
Somalia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2011 |
SOM
0 - 0
ETH
18%
21%
61%
|
36 | 64 | 28 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2011 |
DJI
1 - 0
SOM
50%
21%
29%
|
37 | 34 | 3 | -1 |
| 03 Dec. 2010 |
ZAM
6 - 0
SOM
80%
14%
6%
|
37 | 77 | 40 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2010 |
TAN
3 - 0
SOM
73%
18%
9%
|
37 | 61 | 24 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2010 |
BDI
2 - 0
SOM
60%
22%
17%
|
38 | 50 | 12 | -1 |