Ethiopia vs Guinea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
27.4%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.3%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.4%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
17%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
46.4%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.5%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
14%
0-3
4.2%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.1%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2010 |
ETH
1 - 0
CHA
71%
19%
10%
|
62 | 45 | 17 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2010 |
ETH
0 - 3
KEN
49%
26%
25%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | -2 |
| 04 Dec. 2009 |
KEN
2 - 0
ETH
41%
26%
33%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | -3 |
| 02 Dec. 2009 |
ZAM
1 - 0
ETH
54%
25%
21%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2009 |
ETH
5 - 0
DJI
77%
15%
8%
|
67 | 35 | 32 | 0 |
Matches
Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2010 |
MLI
0 - 2
GUI
52%
25%
23%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2009 |
CIV
3 - 0
GUI
66%
21%
13%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | -3 |
| 11 Oct. 2009 |
GUI
1 - 2
BFA
62%
22%
16%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | -1 |
| 05 Sep. 2009 |
MWI
2 - 1
GUI
25%
25%
49%
|
78 | 62 | 16 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2009 |
EGY
3 - 3
GUI
76%
16%
8%
|
78 | 90 | 12 | 0 |