Ethiopia vs Lesotho analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.9%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
11%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.7%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.8%
17.3%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov. 2023 |
ETH
0 - 3
BFA
25%
27%
48%
|
61 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2023 |
ETH
0 - 0
SLE
51%
24%
25%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2023 |
EGY
1 - 0
ETH
77%
15%
8%
|
61 | 85 | 24 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2023 |
ETH
2 - 0
GUY
65%
20%
15%
|
61 | 50 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 2023 |
ETH
0 - 0
MWI
56%
24%
20%
|
61 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Lesotho
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2024 |
RSA
0 - 0
LSO
76%
17%
7%
|
52 | 79 | 27 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
MOZ
2 - 0
LSO
51%
26%
24%
|
53 | 59 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Nov. 2023 |
LSO
0 - 0
BEN
15%
22%
63%
|
53 | 64 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2023 |
NGA
1 - 1
LSO
84%
12%
4%
|
52 | 83 | 31 | +1 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
CIV
1 - 0
LSO
81%
13%
6%
|
52 | 84 | 32 | 0 |