Ethiopia vs Lesotho analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.2%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.7%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
17.5%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 2022 |
COM
2 - 1
ETH
11%
17%
72%
|
61 | 46 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2022 |
BFA
1 - 1
ETH
64%
21%
15%
|
61 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2022 |
CMR
4 - 1
ETH
64%
23%
13%
|
62 | 81 | 19 | -1 |
| 09 Jan. 2022 |
ETH
0 - 1
CPV
40%
26%
34%
|
62 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2021 |
SDN
2 - 3
ETH
38%
25%
37%
|
62 | 59 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Lesotho
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2022 |
LSO
3 - 1
SYC
68%
21%
11%
|
53 | 35 | 18 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2022 |
SYC
0 - 0
LSO
11%
19%
70%
|
53 | 34 | 19 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2021 |
RSA
4 - 0
LSO
73%
18%
9%
|
54 | 79 | 25 | -1 |
| 10 Jul. 2021 |
BOT
4 - 0
LSO
39%
28%
33%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Jul. 2021 |
ZAM
1 - 2
LSO
75%
16%
9%
|
54 | 74 | 20 | +1 |