Copa Libertadores Final
Global 5-4
Estudiantes La Plata vs Palmeiras analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.9%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.9%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.9%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.1%
16%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.2%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Estudiantes La Plata
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 1968 |
PAL
3 - 1
EST
67%
18%
14%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1968 |
EST
2 - 1
PAL
67%
18%
16%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1968 |
RAC
1 - 1
EST
56%
23%
21%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1968 |
EST
3 - 0
RAC
61%
22%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Apr. 1968 |
RAC
2 - 0
EST
56%
23%
21%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Palmeiras
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 1968 |
PAL
3 - 1
EST
67%
18%
14%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1968 |
EST
2 - 1
PAL
67%
18%
16%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1968 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
PAL
62%
20%
18%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | +1 |
| 18 Apr. 1968 |
PAL
1 - 0
PEÑ
53%
23%
25%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1968 |
PAL
2 - 1
GUA
73%
15%
12%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |