Estrella vs UD San Fernando analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.2%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
3.9%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.8%
20%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20%
66.1%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
0-1
11.5%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
11.9%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.2%
0-3
8.2%
1-4
3.5%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.2%
0-4
4.2%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.8%
0-5
1.7%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.3%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
10º
16º
16º
51
1º
15º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
58 | 59 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
52 | 55 |
2º
|
74.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
51 | 54 |
3º
|
74.5% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 50 |
4º
|
67.5% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 48 |
5º
|
45.5% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 47 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 47 |
7º
|
30% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
85.5% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 39 |
9º
|
54% | |
|
10º
|
37 | 38 |
10º
|
31.5% | |
|
11º
|
36 | 37 |
11º
|
37.5% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 36 |
12º
|
62% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
82.5% | |
|
14º
|
25 | 26 |
14º
|
70.5% | |
|
15º
|
25 | 25 |
15º
|
70.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
16 | 16 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Estrella
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
YAI
2 - 1
EST
63%
20%
18%
|
17 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
EST
0 - 6
UPR
22%
24%
54%
|
18 | 30 | 12 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2023 |
EST
1 - 0
TAM
16%
21%
63%
|
17 | 29 | 12 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 2023 |
PAN
2 - 0
EST
79%
14%
8%
|
17 | 33 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
EST
0 - 5
UDI
40%
24%
36%
|
18 | 19 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
UD San Fernando
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2023 |
UDS
1 - 3
TAM
57%
22%
21%
|
34 | 28 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2023 |
PAN
1 - 0
UDS
41%
24%
35%
|
35 | 33 | 2 | -1 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
UDS
4 - 1
UDI
75%
16%
9%
|
35 | 19 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
CSU
0 - 0
UDS
24%
24%
52%
|
35 | 27 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
UDS
1 - 0
UDG
71%
17%
11%
|
35 | 23 | 12 | 0 |