CAF Champions Semi-finals
Global 4-3
ES Tunis vs Primeiro de Agosto analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.7%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.6%
16.7%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ES Tunis
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2018 |
CSS
2 - 0
ESP
44%
27%
29%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2018 |
PRI
1 - 0
ESP
27%
29%
44%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | -2 |
| 26 Sep. 2018 |
ESP
1 - 1
STA
80%
14%
6%
|
83 | 65 | 18 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2018 |
ETO
0 - 1
ESP
47%
26%
28%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2018 |
ESP
2 - 1
ETO
58%
23%
19%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Primeiro de Agosto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2018 |
PRI
1 - 0
ESP
27%
29%
44%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2018 |
TPM
1 - 1
PRI
60%
22%
18%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2018 |
PRI
0 - 0
TPM
34%
29%
36%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2018 |
PRI
1 - 0
FCC
52%
26%
21%
|
66 | 57 | 9 | +7 |
| 28 Aug. 2018 |
PRI
2 - 1
MBA
77%
17%
6%
|
66 | 41 | 25 | 0 |