Copa del Rey Semi-finals
Global 3-8
Espanyol vs Athletic analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.7%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.9%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
4.9%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.7%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.8%
25.5%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
3%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Espanyol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 1949 |
ATM
5 - 1
ESP
77%
13%
10%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1949 |
ESP
6 - 1
ATM
50%
21%
29%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | +1 |
| 24 Apr. 1949 |
CEL
1 - 0
ESP
71%
15%
14%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 1949 |
ESP
3 - 1
CEL
60%
19%
21%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 1949 |
FCB
2 - 1
ESP
77%
13%
10%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Athletic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 1949 |
GIM
2 - 0
ATH
47%
21%
33%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1949 |
ATH
3 - 0
GIM
81%
11%
8%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
3 - 1
RMA
68%
16%
16%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
1 - 1
RMA
68%
16%
16%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1949 |
RMA
2 - 2
ATH
65%
17%
18%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |