UEFA EC U21 Final
Global 3-3
Spain U21 vs Italy U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.2%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.2%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.9%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
9.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.7%
24.1%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
15.9%
0-2
4%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 1
ESP
55%
25%
20%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1986 |
MAR
0 - 0
ESP
36%
26%
38%
|
65 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1986 |
ESP
4 - 1
HUN
63%
21%
17%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 1986 |
HUN
3 - 1
ESP
60%
21%
19%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | -2 |
| 26 Mar. 1986 |
ESP
3 - 1
FRA
65%
20%
16%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | +2 |
Matches
Italy U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 1
ESP
55%
25%
20%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1986 |
ENG
1 - 1
ITA
50%
24%
26%
|
67 | 55 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 0
ENG
72%
17%
11%
|
67 | 56 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 1
SWE
68%
18%
14%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | +1 |
| 12 Mar. 1986 |
SWE
1 - 1
ITA
54%
23%
23%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | 0 |