Espaly-Saint-Marcel vs Thonon Évian analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.4%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
2.2%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.5%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.4%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.7%
50.9%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
11.2%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.5%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.5%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+146%
-37%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
7º
12º
11º
7
2º
12º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
5º
|
7 | 59 |
1º
|
69% | |
|
|
4º
|
7 | 47 |
2º
|
20% | |
|
1º
|
12 | 47 |
3º
|
16.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 44 |
4º
|
11.5% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 43 |
5º
|
13.5% | |
|
6º
|
7 | 42 |
6º
|
10.5% | |
|
11º
|
2 | 37 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 36 |
8º
|
14.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 36 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
12º
|
1 | 33 |
10º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
3 | 28 |
11º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 26 |
12º
|
24% | |
|
13º
|
1 | 20 |
13º
|
37.5% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 11 |
14º
|
73.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 6.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
28% | 87% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
12% | 4% |
|
Relegation
|
60% | 2.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Espaly-Saint-Marcel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
LYO
2 - 1
ESM
72%
18%
11%
|
26 | 51 | 25 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
ESM
0 - 2
LIM
36%
23%
42%
|
27 | 33 | 6 | -1 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
MAC
0 - 2
ESM
74%
15%
11%
|
26 | 42 | 16 | +1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
ESM
1 - 2
CHA
26%
25%
49%
|
26 | 43 | 17 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
VAU
1 - 5
ESM
36%
23%
42%
|
25 | 20 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Thonon Évian
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
THO
4 - 2
SAE
65%
20%
15%
|
43 | 34 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CLE
0 - 0
THO
36%
25%
39%
|
43 | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
THO
2 - 0
CDE
80%
12%
7%
|
43 | 20 | 23 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
OLY
2 - 1
THO
37%
24%
39%
|
44 | 34 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
THO
0 - 2
PFC
7%
13%
80%
|
44 | 74 | 30 | 0 |