Série D Brazil Semi-finals
Global 3-4
EC São José vs Ferroviário analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.9%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
5%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.2%
23.9%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-15%
-16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
EC São José
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul. 2018 |
FER
3 - 1
ECS
30%
25%
45%
|
51 | 43 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2018 |
ECS
2 - 0
LIN
40%
28%
32%
|
50 | 51 | 1 | +1 |
| 02 Jul. 2018 |
LIN
1 - 0
ECS
44%
26%
29%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | -1 |
| 23 Jun. 2018 |
ECS
2 - 0
TUB
32%
28%
40%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | +1 |
| 16 Jun. 2018 |
TUB
1 - 1
ECS
55%
24%
21%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Ferroviário
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul. 2018 |
FER
3 - 1
ECS
30%
25%
45%
|
43 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2018 |
CAM
1 - 0
FER
46%
26%
28%
|
44 | 46 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 Jul. 2018 |
FER
3 - 2
CAM
42%
26%
32%
|
43 | 47 | 4 | +1 |
| 23 Jun. 2018 |
ALT
2 - 4
FER
51%
24%
25%
|
42 | 43 | 1 | +1 |
| 19 Jun. 2018 |
FER
1 - 1
ALT
52%
23%
25%
|
42 | 43 | 1 | 0 |