Copa do Brasil 1/64
Global 3-1
Bahía vs Villa Nova analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
3%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.5%
4-0
6.9%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
8.3%
3-0
12.7%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
16%
2-0
17.6%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.6%
1-0
16.2%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
24.9%
16.1%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
1.6%
3-3
0.2%
0
16.1%
5.9%
Win probability
0.43
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
4.9%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bahía
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2014 |
FFL
0 - 2
BAH
50%
26%
25%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2014 |
BAH
1 - 2
CRZ
20%
25%
55%
|
74 | 87 | 13 | -1 |
| 13 Apr. 2014 |
VIT
2 - 2
BAH
64%
21%
16%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 2014 |
BAH
2 - 0
VIT
37%
26%
37%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | +1 |
| 29 Mar. 2014 |
BAH
1 - 0
SER
79%
15%
6%
|
71 | 45 | 26 | +1 |
Matches
Villa Nova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2014 |
VIL
1 - 1
BAH
17%
24%
59%
|
48 | 71 | 23 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2014 |
VIL
3 - 1
NAC
78%
14%
7%
|
48 | 28 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2014 |
VIL
3 - 1
URT
57%
23%
20%
|
47 | 45 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2014 |
AMF
1 - 1
VIL
79%
15%
6%
|
47 | 65 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2014 |
VIL
2 - 1
MIN
67%
19%
14%
|
47 | 38 | 9 | 0 |