Durango vs Mexicali FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.7%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.3%
3-0
10%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.2%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.7%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.4%
9.6%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.1%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+21%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
2
1º
7º
3º
1
11º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
4º
|
4 | 24 |
1º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
3 | 23 |
2º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
2 | 22 |
3º
|
16% | |
|
2º
|
7 | 21 |
4º
|
26% | |
|
5º
|
4 | 18 |
5º
|
19.5% | |
|
11º
|
0 | 17 |
6º
|
15.5% | |
|
7º
|
3 | 17 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
1º
|
9 | 14 |
8º
|
24% | |
|
10º
|
1 | 12 |
9º
|
19% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 11 |
10º
|
18.5% | |
|
3º
|
4 | 11 |
11º
|
26.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
1 | 9 |
12º
|
40% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
20.5% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
77% | 9% |
|
Mid-table
|
2.5% | 91% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Durango
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
LEO
0 - 0
DUR
15%
23%
62%
|
62 | 38 | 24 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
TRI
1 - 1
DUR
31%
29%
41%
|
62 | 50 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
LCU
0 - 0
DUR
39%
28%
33%
|
62 | 58 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2024 |
DUR
0 - 1
LCU
57%
24%
20%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
DUR
1 - 0
GAV
57%
23%
20%
|
62 | 58 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Mexicali FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
ADG
0 - 0
MFC
17%
19%
64%
|
33 | 15 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
MFC
1 - 2
TRI
25%
25%
50%
|
34 | 51 | 17 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
TDA
1 - 0
MFC
11%
16%
74%
|
35 | 7 | 28 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
MFC
2 - 0
DUR
21%
25%
55%
|
33 | 61 | 28 | +2 |
| 25 Apr. 2024 |
COL
1 - 0
MFC
57%
20%
23%
|
33 | 37 | 4 | 0 |