Derry City vs Dundalk analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.9%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
5%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.2%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.4%
23.7%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.3%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-17%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
1º
5º
2º
24
8º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 64 |
1º
|
59.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
49 | 60 |
2º
|
39.5% | |
|
3º
|
45 | 56 |
3º
|
33.5% | |
|
4º
|
43 | 53 |
4º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
42 | 52 |
5º
|
24% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 50 |
6º
|
26% | |
|
7º
|
38 | 49 |
7º
|
35.5% | |
|
8º
|
33 | 44 |
8º
|
59% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 33 |
9º
|
67% | |
|
|
10º
|
24 | 31 |
10º
|
69% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
34.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
58.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
7% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 31% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 69% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derry City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2024 |
SHE
0 - 0
DER
41%
28%
31%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
DER
3 - 0
STP
45%
25%
30%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | +1 |
| 18 Jul. 2024 |
DER
2 - 1
MAG
49%
23%
28%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2024 |
MAG
2 - 0
DER
36%
25%
39%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | -1 |
| 04 Jul. 2024 |
SLR
2 - 1
DER
30%
29%
42%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Dundalk
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
DUN
0 - 2
GAL
38%
27%
35%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
BOH
1 - 1
DUN
52%
25%
24%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2024 |
DRO
2 - 1
DUN
30%
24%
46%
|
73 | 64 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2024 |
DUN
4 - 2
DRO
58%
23%
19%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2024 |
SHR
1 - 0
DUN
54%
24%
22%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |