Q. Europa League Tercera Ronda Final
Global 1-2
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
27%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27%
32.1%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.1%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derry City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2009 |
SHR
2 - 1
DER
43%
29%
28%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2009 |
CSK
1 - 0
DER
63%
21%
16%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 Jul. 2009 |
DER
1 - 1
CAO
45%
27%
28%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2009 |
DER
1 - 0
FCS
34%
25%
42%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 Jul. 2009 |
BOH
1 - 0
DER
54%
25%
21%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
CSKA Sofia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2009 |
CSK
1 - 0
DER
63%
21%
16%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2009 |
CSK
2 - 1
LOK
66%
20%
14%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | +1 |
| 31 May. 2009 |
LOV
1 - 0
CSK
52%
25%
23%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2009 |
CSK
1 - 0
LSO
52%
24%
24%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2009 |
CVA
1 - 0
CSK
44%
28%
28%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |