Derby County Sub 18 vs Stoke City Sub 18 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
83.3%
Win probability
2.98
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.3%
5-0
5%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
7%
4-0
8.5%
5-1
3.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.5%
3-0
11.3%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.4%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.5%
11.1%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
5.2%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
11.1%
5.6%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
4.2%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-24%
-15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
3º
8º
4º
23
6º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 62 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
56 | 56 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
37 | 37 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 32 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
32 | 32 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 32 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 27 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 27 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 25 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
18 | 18 |
13º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County Sub 18
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 2
DER
29%
21%
50%
|
32 | 24 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
DER
2 - 2
MAN
18%
21%
61%
|
31 | 42 | 11 | +1 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
MCI
5 - 1
DER
81%
12%
7%
|
31 | 46 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
DER
4 - 1
MID
72%
16%
13%
|
31 | 21 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
NOT
0 - 6
DER
40%
23%
37%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | +3 |
Matches
Stoke City Sub 18
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
STO
1 - 4
EVE
33%
23%
44%
|
19 | 24 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
LIV
3 - 1
STO
82%
12%
7%
|
19 | 30 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
MCI
3 - 1
STO
91%
7%
2%
|
19 | 46 | 27 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
STO
2 - 4
LIV
14%
16%
70%
|
20 | 32 | 12 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
WOL
3 - 0
STO
50%
22%
27%
|
21 | 21 | 0 | -1 |