Derby County U18 vs Man. Utd U18 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.1%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.6%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
5%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.7%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.5%
61.4%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.4%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.6%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.1%
0-4
3.5%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.3%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+75%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
3º
8º
4º
62
1º
2º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
62 | 62 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
56 | 56 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
37 | 37 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 32 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
32 | 32 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 32 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 27 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 27 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 25 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
18 | 18 |
13º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County U18
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
MCI
5 - 1
DER
81%
12%
7%
|
31 | 46 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
DER
4 - 1
MID
72%
16%
13%
|
31 | 21 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
NOT
0 - 6
DER
40%
23%
37%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | +3 |
| 09 Dec. 2023 |
DER
1 - 6
LEE
68%
17%
15%
|
30 | 21 | 9 | -2 |
| 17 Nov. 2023 |
MID
2 - 2
DER
22%
20%
58%
|
30 | 21 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Man. Utd U18
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 2024 |
MAN
4 - 3
LIV
70%
17%
13%
|
42 | 30 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
MAN
4 - 0
LEE
82%
11%
7%
|
42 | 23 | 19 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
MAN
1 - 0
MCI
29%
23%
48%
|
39 | 47 | 8 | +3 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 3
MAN
18%
18%
64%
|
39 | 26 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
EVE
0 - 2
MAN
16%
17%
67%
|
38 | 25 | 13 | +1 |