Derby County vs Watford analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.6%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.5%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.7%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
36.5%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
8%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.6%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.5%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.9%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
LEY
1 - 1
DER
35%
26%
39%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
BRI
1 - 0
DER
48%
27%
25%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2025 |
SHW
4 - 2
DER
49%
27%
25%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
DER
0 - 1
LEE
25%
25%
50%
|
75 | 86 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
DER
2 - 1
WBA
33%
27%
41%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Watford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
CAR
1 - 1
WAT
32%
26%
42%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2025 |
FUL
4 - 1
WAT
75%
16%
9%
|
77 | 89 | 12 | -1 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
WAT
1 - 2
SHE
31%
27%
42%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2025 |
QPR
3 - 1
WAT
33%
27%
41%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | -1 |
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
WAT
1 - 2
CAR
60%
23%
17%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | -1 |